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After a setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is now basking in euphoria following its resounding victory in the Uttar Pradesh assembly bypolls, effectively halting the momentum the Samajwadi Party-led Opposition gained just over five months ago on the road to the 2027 assembly elections.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won seven of the nine assembly seats for which the bypolls were held on November 20. The NDA not only improved its tally over 2022, but also snatched seats like Kundarki and Katehari from the SP, besides increasing the winning margins on some and narrowing down the defeat gap on some others.
The NDA won only four of these seats in 2022. The Ghaziabad, Khair and Phulpur seats went to the BJP and Majhawan to its alliance partner, the NISHAD party, then.
In the 2024 bypolls, the BJP has retained all these four seats and brought three additional seats into its kitty. The BJP won the Ghaziabad, Khair, Kundarki, Phulpur, Majhawan, and Katehari seats while its ally the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) retained the Meerapur seat. The RLD was the SP’s ally in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls.
The SP that emerged as the dominant force in the Lok Sabha elections in UP had to remain satisfied with just two seats, Sisamau and Karhal, which is its pocketborough.
The BJP’s landslide win in the assembly bypolls comes as a powerful morale booster after party’s tally fell from 62 out of 80 Lok Sabha seatsin 2019 to just 33 in June 2024 whereas the SP emerged as the single largest party from the state with 37 Lok Sabha seats.
The bypoll results, it is believed, will inject the much-needed confidence into the party as it gears up for the crucial 2027 battle.
In fact, the bypolls were a critical test for the BJP, given the high stakes involved and the political capital invested. Chief minister Yogi Adityanath himself spearheaded the campaign. Both deputy chief ministers Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, state BJP chief Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary and general secretary (organisation) Dharampal were also assigned the seats with a view to ensuring the party’s victory.
All this reflected the BJP’s desperation as well as determination to reverse setbacks it suffered in the Lok Sabha polls. Hence, the party pulled out all stops to win the battle of perception. Otherwise, the bypolls had no other significance. The results have not only saved the party from potential embarrassment, but also reaffirmed its grassroots strength and ability to mobilise its cadre effectively.
Analysts view these victories as a testament to the BJP’s organisational machinery and its continued appeal. The results, according to them, have come a big relief to Yogi Adityanath personally and the BJP in general.
“The outcome of the bypolls will consolidate the Yogi Adityanath’s leadership in the BJP and the government and put brakes to many rumours that gained currency after the Lok Sabha polls, within and outside the party,” political scientist Shashi Kant Pandey said.
Welcoming the results, UP BJP chief Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary said, “It is the victory of the work of the double-engine government in the state and defeat of the SP’s negative politics and lies that now stand exposed.”
Pandey, however, said despite its resounding victory in the by-polls, the BJP would continue to face challenges ahead. “The party’s leadership will need to address the factors that led to its Lok Sabha debacle and sustain the momentum gained through these bypolls,” he said.
An indication about this already has already come from SP chief Akhilesh Yadav who, after the results, wrote on X, “The tricks of those who have made ‘election’ synonymous with ‘corruption’ have been captured in photographs and exposed before the world. The world, the country and Uttar Pradesh saw the most distorted form of electoral politics in this by-election. There may be a time of falsehood but not an era. Now the real struggle has begun… clench your fist, tighten your fist and make the PDA’s proclamation ‘Judenge to Jeetenge!”
The bypoll results may have provided a much-needed lifeline to the BJP, but the road to reclaiming the dominance it lost in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections may still remain long and challenging.